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I’m lucky to have a job that lets me straddle the line between technology and the built environment.  To me they are inextricably linked.  How we deploy and use technology drives how we design space – and visa-versa.  But for the sake of blogging, I’m going to separate these.  I’ll take a crack at a set of workplace predictions for 2012 and a set of technology predictions and I’ll release them in two blog posts.

Here are my 2012 predictions for the Workplace:

Mobility hits the tipping point or “Was that a revolution I just felt?” – In 2012, Corporate North America will finally begin to realize that the revolution in work has already happened and that our workplaces are out-of-date and set-up to support a way of working that no longer exists.  CEOs, who have so far been unconvinced by proof that Mobility (alternative work practices, telework, etc) can increase productivity, cut carbon, reduce risk and enable hiring of the best talent, will finally declare that Mobility “might” have a place in the company.

HOWEVER, many company leaders will continue to hold onto old ideas that a mobile workforce “rips the heart out of our culture” and is “unmanageable”.  We in CRE, HR and even IT need to push back on these old notions with facts and stories of success.  That is our task in 2012.

The next wave of Mobility will arrive – While the realization that Mobility is the way business is done will become mainstream, companies who have been formally practicing this work method for years will face the next wave of Mobility.  The next wave is about driving the mobile practice throughout the company to a point where true and big real estate savings can be realized and new management techniques can drive measureable increases in productivity.  Driving a Mobility program from start-up to scale has its own unique set of challenges, and this will demand a lot of attention in 2012.

A laser beam focus on productivity - Worker productivity will get increased and deserved attention as managers learn to manage their workforces by objectives tied to corporate goals and meaningful engagement rather than by workers’ time in their seats in the office.  This is a mature concept but it is practiced less frequently than perceived.  It will now be brought to the fore because a mobile workforce requires true management skills and structures.  Mobility shines the light on the places where management has been weak.

E-commerce will change retail – This one isn’t new, but it will have a big impact in 2012.  Online e-commerce will force traditional retailers to focus on the user experience to remain relevant.  Retail stores are burdened with having to maintain inventory in every store vs. online sellers that require only one warehouse in a cheap location.  E-commerce cuts into the already thin margins of retail.  Going to a store must become a compelling experience or customers will shop on-line.  No matter, some big retailers will die in 2012 and this will drive vacancy rates for mall and downtown store square footage higher.

Interestingly, the same concept applies to the office.  Workers need to go to the office only when it provides something that can’t be delivered through a copper wire.  Human connection.  Inspiration.  Teaming.  Rich collaboration.  It's the same filter: the reason we go to the store - or to the office - must offer an experience that cannot be provided virtually.  There is still a need for a store and for an office.  But it is different than it was.  And we need to be mindful of this difference and alter our expectations and designs accordingly.

Office expansion and location decisions need to be considered carefully - There is a reported office vacancy rate in downtowns and suburbs of about 15%.  Organizations bank space (or have some leftover from the last layoffs) at about 20%.  Mobile work frees up a lot of space – usually 50% of the office (every study supports this figure).  You can add these figures since they have a common denominator and get a total vacancy in the US of 85%.  The math is good but how can the vacancy be so high?  Well, we’re mixing vacancy types, so let’s cut the figure in half.  That means we have an office vacancy rate in the US of about 40%.  That high rate begs these questions: Why would we build any more office space?  Where will the REIT and commercial lending money go if it isn’t used to build buildings?  What officing decisions should organizations make now to get on the right side of this equation?  This office vacancy rate, coupled with the retail vacancy rate above, will force a lot of interesting urban planning and real estate investment decisions.

Click here to read my 2012 predictions for technology.

“It’s tough to make predictions., especially about the future.”  Yogi Berra